“Good Year for a Great War”

“Will 2014 bring another Great War? My bet is almost certainly not, but with a note of caution. Claims that war is “inconceivable” are not statements about what is possible in the world, but rather, about what our limited minds can conceive. The fact that Presidents Obama and Xi understand that war would be folly for both China and the US is relevant but not dispositive. None of the leaders in Europe of 1914 would have chosen the war they got and that in the end they all lost. By 1918, the Kaiser was gone, the Austro-Hungarian Empire dissolved, the Tsar overthrown by the Bolsheviks, France bled for a generation, and England shorn of the flower of its youth and treasure. Given a chance for a do-over, none of the leaders would have made the choices he did.”
2014: Good Year for a Great War?, Graham Allison, The National Interest.

As this decade seems to mirror the last century I’m not surprised that someone is making a comparison to the “guns of August”. I am miffed that it took’em long enough.

With the fall of Saddam and the death of Bin Laden, too many think that we’re “at peace”. Americans want out of Afghanistan. The left drools over “Obamacare” and more domestic spending.

Meanwhile the world is slowly burning, Asia is full of disputes over territory. The Middle East is in revolution and Europe is broke.

August 1916 or Spring 1938? Either way the next few years could bring a nasty surprise.

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