“Turning and turning in the widening gyre”

The Second Coming

“Turning and turning in the widening gyre
The falcon cannot hear the falconer;
Things fall apart; the centre cannot hold;
Mere anarchy is loosed upon the world,
The blood-dimmed tide is loosed, and everywhere
The ceremony of innocence is drowned;
The best lack all conviction, while the worst
Are full of passionate intensity”
–“The Second Coming“, William Butler Yeats

“The missile tests popping up all over Asia should be seen in this light. Everyone’s arming up, starting with Russia. As we speak, Moscow is rearming missile units with Russia’s most advanced ICBM, the Yars missile, which was first tested in 2007. The Topol-M missile, tested in 2004, is already deployed.”
–“Missiles, missiles everywhere” December 4, 2012 by J.E. Dyer, HotAir.com

Mr. Dyer goes on to list missile developments in Asia, including the Nork’s upcoming missile test. Oh, and “Nork” is not racist, btw.

US Army Patriot missile units are in the middle east, defending our allies in the Arabian Gulf. Egypt’s “moderate” president flees the presidential palace because Egyptians don’t like a dictator. India and China are flexing their muscles.

The left, when not plugging their fingers in their ears (that “norks is racist comment is based on a tweet by a leftie with the IQ of a tree stump), they spit on our country:

But will a film like Kathryn Bigelow’s “Zero Dark Thirty,” about a specific, recent event — the killing of Osama bin Laden — resonate in the same way that her previous, fictional movie about the Iraq war, “The Hurt Locker,” did with its fearless main character channeling our deepest fears about the price of that misbegotten war?

Oddly, my deepest fears about the war were that (a) the rules of engagement prevented victory, and (b) any gains made would be lost to politics. Both of those fears have been realized.
–“Yet more fear and loathing of American culture (and history) at the LA Times“,by Joel Engel (giving a “reason you suck speech” to the LAT’s Reed Johnson)

The left wants to pretend that the world loves and shares their Marxist worldview. The world is have vs. have not’s and not the real world of hate and power hungry haters.

Either we recognize that there is a bear in the woods or we let the bear attack.

“And what rough beast, its hour come round at last,
Slouches towards Bethlehem to be born?”

We’ll find out soon enough.

Huh…

“But there’s one thing that hasn’t changed much. Each year, the overwhelming majority of new military recruits are young and male. In that sense, the American military of 2012 still looks a great deal like the American military of the 1970s, the 1940s, the 1860s, or the 1770s. For that matter, it still looks a lot like virtually every group of warriors in virtually every society during virtually every period of human history.

It’s time to question the near-universal assumption that the ideal military recruit is young and male. The nature of warfare has changed dramatically in the last century and the capabilities most needed by the military are less and less likely to be in the exclusive possession of young males. In fact, the opposite may be true: when it comes to certain key skills and qualities likely to be vital to the military in the coming decades, young males may be one of the least well-suited demographic groups.”
—
No Army for Young Men
Soldiers these days need less muscle and more maturity, so why do we still focus on recruiting 18-year-olds?
BY ROSA BROOKS

My least favorite blogger, Ms. Brooks actually hits one out of the park. I was mad at her epic fail as she questioned military pay and benefits. Hey, service members aren’t paid high enough lady!

But she hits the right notes with this piece. For some reason the left wants to screw over our allies. The New York Times wants us to leave Taiwan. War is Boring and the Atlantic want the US to leave Japan.

In the midst of teh peacenik crazies, it’s nice to see someone admit that soldiers are ADULTS.

The US military does not enlist, nor commission children. I’m gonna say that again, the US military does not enlist, nor commission children.

The reason the military recruits in high school is to get young people as they turn 18. Given the 20 year career path many take, that means a young man or woman could enlist at 17 (with their parent’s permission). Starting at E-1, they go up the ranks. The higher ranks are capped per federal regs and age limits, but promotion is based on merit. So a young man or woman can join at 17, get promoted and then retire at the age of 40 if they want. Or they can go to a service academy, ROTC or plain ole’ college then get a commission as an officer. Or they can do the “high school to flight school” and become a warrant officer and fly for the Army. There are officers, warrant officers and enlisted who have 25+ years of service, some with over 40. The point is that high school age Americans had a place in the military of the past.

Flash forward to the 21st century, those over 17, hell those up to 40 can join. Yes, a career in the military is hard on the body. That said, those fresh out of high school have a place. Instead of drinking and parting their way through teen years mark II, they could get a job defending their country. But being 20, 23, or 33 doesn’t make them unfit. If anything older service members bring skills and experience into the mix.

The myth that junior enlisted are “children” dates back to conflicts of old. Yes, even up to Vietnam, the military and civilian leaders kept tossing bodies at the problem. Now we live in the era that makes Vietnam’s tech level look like the Napoleonic Wars. More young soldiers have families, more junior enlisted are older than 20. The draft should go the way of segregation, “don’t ask, don’t tell” and vacuum tubes.

Her blog is the usual leftist screeching that war is too easy, somehow. I applaud her for saying that soldiers, sailors, airmen and marines ARE NOT children. It’s time everyone realizes that. All Americans over 17 should get calls from recruiters.

About that Pacific Re-alignment…

As seen on DEW Line: Chinese and Russian aircraft.

Via Dewline: http://www.flightglobal.com/blogs/the-dewline/

So the DoD wants to shift to the Pacific. Here’s the reason why they should be worried. The Russian plane has a radar that poses a deadly threat to fourth generation aircraft. The Chinese are putting a real fighter on board the carrier most lefties think is just for show. So a real fighter with their new navy.

And this is why the Pacific is becoming a dangerous place.

BTW: lost in the disappointment in the “Arab Spring” and it’s failure in Egypt:

“CAIRO – Egypt’s Islamist president ordered his defense minister and chief of staff to retire on Sunday and canceled the military-declared constitutional amendments that gave top generals wide powers”

Egypt’s president cancels amendments that gave military power, names vice president: Associated Press.

Patriot Missile Operators:

Egyptian Air Defense Command:
MIM-104(PAC-3) missile: 4 Batteries (4 Stationary (towed) units per Battery, 16 missiles per unit plus 2 reloads each)

Israeli Air Force (GEM+)

This won’t end well….

Why We Should Use Technology

In National Review, Clifford D. May writes:

Wars of the future will be very different from wars of the past. Everyone gets that. What many do not grasp: The present war also is very different from wars of the past.

Among the ways: Those defending the West try hard to abide by the laws of war. Those attacking the West say clearly that they will not be bound by any “infidel” rules. They are committed to what they call a “Koranic concept of war.”

It’s not just uniforms and ID tags/cards. It’s not shooting civilians. Not flying jets into buildings. Europe frets over kill lists but that’s because they want to appease the evil hordes at the door.

The French used to find terrorist camps and level them. They’d send their commandos in, they’d kill the terrorists and take as much as they could carry. This put an end to a lot of terrorist groups. The SAS hit the Irish Republican Army hard. Between bad publicity and bullets to the head, the IRA has committed to disarming it’s stockpile.

But special forces raids are risky. Bunkers full of equipment need to be hit somehow.

Cyber warfare was discussed, too. Indira Lakshmanan, a generally sensible Bloomberg reporter, argued that if Americans use cyber weapons, “let’s not think that the Iranians themselves won’t learn from what we’ve done to them and couldn’t release similar bugs on us with potentially devastating consequences. So that’s something we really need to think about.” Yes, and let’s start by considering whether it is remotely plausible that Iran’s rulers, the world’s leading sponsors of terrorism, would conclude that it’s not quite cricket to use such weapons — if only Americans would refrain from using them first.

Lakshmanan’s thinking was befuddled on another score as well: “If we’re sitting at the table with [Iranians] in Moscow next week, how are they going to believe that we’re actually trying to negotiate a nuclear deal with them if at the same time we’re admitting openly that we’re engaged in outright cyber warfare with them?”

Fighting fairly went out with kings and princes. Chivalry is dead. We have laws of warfare, but it’s assumed that all sides will agree to the rules. Terrorists, communists (yes there are still commies), drug lords and other “non-state” actors. China and North Korea don’t take prisoners. African and Middle Eastern regimes are famous for using missiles and artillery to settle disputes.

We don’t fight wars by lining up men, stacking numbers against numbers.

We have stealth jets and stand-off weapons to overcome the numbers of anti-aircraft missiles. We use tanks, APC’s and IFV’s that are part of a network. A Marine Corporal or Army Sergeant can call on the radio and bring the rain. He or she has access to firepower that Patton or MacArthur could only dream about. Sensors, firepower, communications, the “strategic corporal” is the tip of the spear. And a diplomat, and an aid worker.

Forrest Gump is roadkill on the modern battlefield.

So what if we use “cyberwarfare”? Do those lefites with a case of the vapors want US troops to go and dig out nuclear bunkers? Every Predator drone means less pilots and troops at risk. If a computer virus can disable a WMD lab, that means no shooting, no dead Americans paraded through downtown Durka-Durkastan.

JLENS is a radar and optical combo that looks down. It can see cruise missiles and aircraft trying to hide. It can also see enemy troops on the ground many miles away. That means no scout aircraft getting shot at. It means US and Allies have early warning.

The left loves the myth of the underdog. That somehow the Vietcong, Iraqi insurgents and the Taliban are some ragtag “army”. Bull.

Most “non-state” actors are scum. The Lybian and Egyptain revolution have devolved into Islamist takeovers, as the Arab Spring turns into a Fascist Winter. Syria is a hell of advanced weapons and a mad regime desperate to hold on to power.

We use out technology to decimate the enemy. There is no fair in warfare. We respect the enemy, but we’re gonna rain fire down on him. Non-combatants are protected. Those who fight are gonna get set on fire, in uniform or not. From standoff weapons, drones and cyber “weapons”, the bad guys are in for a world of hurt.

Terrorists are only victims in the twisted logic of the left. To us in uniform, they’re targets.

Mighty Mites: Zumwalt, “high tech” and China

“Zumwalt reshaped the Navy’s effort to replace large numbers of aging World War II-era vessels, a plan called “High-Low.” Instituted over the resistance of Admiral Hyman Rickover and others, High-Low sought to balance the purchase of high-end, nuclear-powered vessels with low-end, cheaper ones —- such as the Sea Control Ship — that could be bought in greater numbers. Rickover, the Father of the Nuclear Navy, preferred buying a few major ships to buying many ordinary ones. Zumwalt proposed four kinds of warships to fit the plan; in the end, only the Pegasus class of missile patrol boats and the Oliver Hazard Perry (FFG 7) class of guided missile frigates became reality, and only six out of the planned 100+ Pegasus class hydrofoils were built. But the Perrys stood as the most populous class of U.S. warships since World War II until the advent of the Arleigh Burke (DDG 51) destroyers.”
—
Wikipedia

USS Oliver Hazard Perry

Brad wrote about the Houbei missile boats. Small, fast, with stealth tech and anti-ship missile launchers.
At 36 knots, its just 12 knots shy of the Pegasus’s 48. But that’s still fast for a patrol ship. And it’s cheap.

Fear my l33t missile skillz!

Admiral Zumwalt wanted to expand the Navy as the USSR was building up. The Sea Control Ship was a mini-carrier, with VTOL aircraft. That fighter was supposed to be the XFV-12but the Navy had to settle for the British designed AV-8 when Rockwell couldn’t deliver.

Artist conception

Between the SCS, the Perry class frigates and the hydrofoils, Zumwalt wanted to expand the Navy quickly. He didn’t see the ships as a replacement for the big ships but as a way to meet the Reds. Those three ships could hold the line until the big carriers and cruisers could be brought to bear. They’d protect the carriers and add firepower to the cruisers. The SCS would chase the subs away from the strike groups as its aircraft added to the big carrier’s wing. The Pegasus and Perry’s would missile spam the Soviets. With all their powers combined, the Soviet Navy would wilt under Navy firepower.

Pegasus-class hydrofoils

It was called the “High-Low” mix. For every big ship, dozens of smaller ships could be bought along side it.

The Soviets had their Kiev class. It was a mini-carrier and a missile cruiser in one. They liked’em so much that they went full carrier.  One sailed, the Cold War ended before the second one could be built. Guess where the second carrier is? (Hint: CHINA!)

In the end the “Nuclear Navy” won out. Like the “Sea Shadow“, most of the ship Zumwalt wanted had fewer crew. Less people for officers to boss around. Rickover wanted his subs and the carrier skippers wanted their big decks. The Pegasus class was limited to a few ships, all withdrawn after 1993. The SCS was seen as an outright threat to the big carriers and the Marines had the “Gator Navy” so the SCS never left the drawing board when Zumwalt retired. The Perry class served for many years. However they are limited, worn out and the navy wants to withdraw them from service. Their replacement is the Littoral Combat ship.

Next War-itis cast in steel

How did the Navy honor Zumwalt? Two of the most expensive and trouble plagued ship building programs in American history.

“Lawmakers and others have questioned whether the Zumwalt class costs too much and whether it provides the capabilities the U.S. military needs. In 2005 the Congressional Budget Office estimated the acquisition cost of a DD(X) at $3.8–4.0bn in 2007 dollars, $1.1bn more than the Navy’s estimate.[52]

Specific issues have been raised about the design:”

4.1 Ballistic missile/air defense capability
4.2 Missile capacity
4.3 Naval fire support role
4.4 Structural problems
4.5 Tumblehome design stability

— Zumwalt Class Destroyers, #Controversy

---

“On 23 August 2010, The US Navy announced a delay in awarding the contract for 10 ships until sometime near the end of the year.[58] A meeting of the Defense Acquisition Board scheduled for 29 October 2010 has been delayed and The Navy has indicated that no decision on the contract can be made until this meeting is held.[26]

The GAO found that deploying the first two ships will delay the overall program because these two ships were not available for testing and development so changes may have to be made in the second pair of ships during their construction instead of being planned for before construction started.[59] The U.S. Navy responded that “Early deployment brought LCS operational issues to the forefront much sooner than under the original schedule, some of which would not have been learnt until two years on.””
— Littoral combat ship

In other words, a massive “fuck you” to the man who cared so much about the US Navy. Two large costly ships that may not be able to fight, one of the ship classes even has his name.

Ex-Varyag under two.

China hasn’t been standing still. Most of their Cold War era ships were scrapped or are now floating theme parks. They are studying the carrier they bought cheap and have large missile to take ours out.

Between that carrier (and it’s follow on), the DF-21 missile and that fast missile boat, the waters around China could get nasty real quick. With the small Houbei zipping around, the PLA can harass Taiwan and put a dent in our operations. Their carriers are nowhere near the size, firepower or punch of one 90,000 ton US carrier. They don’t need to be. With the newer missiles, cruisers, frigates and destroyers, they can get protection. With the Houbei’s they can add that to their sting. With the DF-21 hitting our carriers (and its sister missiles hitting our airfields in the pacific), GAME OVER.

Sound familiar?

It’s a damn shame that the Navy Brass is hung up on the NEXT BING THING[tm].  The LCS doesn’t have a single mission module that works right. But the modules are it’s firepower, with out them it’s just got a wimpy deck gun. The Zumwalt class has delay after delay. Of the planned 32, only 3 will be built. T-H-R-E-E. The both LCS versions been shown underway covered in rust.

China, like Russia, sells to who ever has the money. That some of the potential buyers for the fast missile boats and new frigates hate our guts is a bonus. It’s sad The Navy just might have it’s head handed to it by a high-low mix. The same idea they spurned so long ago.

4) Small ships can only damage a well-equipped Navy if many of them attack at once. A number of explosive-laden suicide craft in a tight waterway such as the Straight of Hormuz could be remarkably effective

— 5 Reasons the U.S. Navy’s Scared (and What They’re Doing About It)

7 Dec, 1941

Mr. Vice President, Mr. Speaker, members of the Senate and the House of Representatives: Yesterday, December 7th, 1941 — a date which will live in infamy — the United States of America was suddenly and deliberately attacked by naval and air forces of the Empire of Japan.

The United States was at peace with that nation, and, at the solicitation of Japan, was still in conversation with its Government and its Emperor looking toward the maintenance of peace in the Pacific. Indeed, one hour after Japanese air squadrons had commenced bombing in the American island of Oahu, the Japanese Ambassador to the United States and his colleague delivered to our Secretary of State a formal reply to a recent American message. And while this reply stated that it seemed useless to continue the existing diplomatic negotiations, it contained no threat or hint of war or of armed attack.
—
Pearl Harbor speech (1941)
by PresidentFranklin Delano Roosevelt

Could it have been prevented? No. We must remember. We must be ready. We must teach the lessons learned.

China

“There’s little debate over those capabilities, which are clearly superior to what they were only a few years ago, and improving fast. But China’s intentions are harder to read. David Finkelstein, director of China Studies at the Center for Naval Analyses in Alexandria, Va., says that he shares the “great uneasiness about how China will use its incipient but growing maritime power” throughout the region, but also notes that in recent years China has concluded that “time is on their side on Taiwan” and thus have been “relatively more relaxed” than in the past.”

—Over the Horizon BY JAMES TRAUB foreignpolicy.com, Via Hotair

As someone who trains against real threats, I say worry. China, like Russia, needs cash money. They sell to how ever has the greenbacks. They reverse engineer our tech when they get the chance. They have been on a spending spree.

The first Zeros (pre-series A6M2) went into operation in July 1940.[12] On 13 September 1940, the Zeros scored their first air-to-air victories when 13 A6M2s led by Lieutenant Saburo Shindo attacked 27 Soviet-built Polikarpov I-15s and I-16s of the Chinese Nationalist Air Force, shooting down all the fighters without loss to themselves. By the time they were redeployed a year later, the Zeros had shot down 99 Chinese aircraft[13] (266 according to other sources).[12]

At the time of the Attack on Pearl Harbor 420 Zeros were active in the Pacific. The carrier-borne Model 21 was the type encountered by the Americans. Its tremendous range of over 2,600 km (1,600 mi) allowed it to range further from its carrier than expected, appearing over distant battlefronts and giving Allied commanders the impression that there were several times as many Zeros as actually existed.[14]

The Zero quickly gained a fearsome reputation. Thanks to a combination of excellent maneuverability and firepower, it easily disposed of the motley collection of Allied aircraft sent against it in the Pacific in 1941. It proved a difficult opponent even for the Supermarine Spitfire. Although not as fast as the British fighter, the Mitsubishi fighter could out-turn the Spitfire with ease, could sustain a climb at a very steep angle, and could stay in the air for three times as long.[15]

Soon, however, Allied pilots developed tactics to cope with the Zero. Due to its extreme agility, engaging in a traditional, turning dogfight with a Zero was likely to be fatal. It was better to roar down from above in a high-speed pass, fire a quick burst, then zoom back up to altitude. (A short burst of fire from heavy machine guns or cannon was often enough to bring down the fragile Zero.) Such “boom-and-zoom” tactics were used successfully in the China Burma India Theater (CBI) by the “Flying Tigers” of the American Volunteer Group (AVG) against similarly maneuverable Japanese Army aircraft such as the Nakajima Ki-27 and Ki-43. AVG pilots were trained to exploit the advantages of their P-40s, which were very sturdy, heavily armed, generally faster in a dive and level flight at low altitude, with a good rate of roll.[16]
—Mitsubishi A6M Zero, Wikipedia

And today:

“The real mystery surrounding the giant plane is; what will it be used for?

My guess is that it’s a high-speed interceptor along the lines of the famous MiG-25 Foxbat and MiG-31 Foxhound or that it’s meant to be a penetrating, F-111 or F-15E-style weapons truck designed to strike heavily defended targets like air bases or carrier battle groups. As you can see in this video, it certainly appears to have the weapons carrying capacity for either of these missions.”
—J-20 Stealth Fighter Doors Explained, Defense Tech.

The A6M bit the Army and Navy in the ass because no one paid any attention to advances in technology. The PLA is not building an F-22, it’s making a large deep strike aircraft.

“Even with allowances for Chinese technology not being as compact as Western technology (which I think is slightly a bogus argument in 2011) – that bird is big for a reason. I don’t think air superiority is it.” CMDR Salamander

Like the A6M (vs the Brewster Buffalo, P-40 et al.), the J-20 will face old, rusting 1970’s era fighters: F-5, F-16, F-18, Mig and yes even Chinese designs. Given that it’s stable mates are Su-27 copies, with better avionics and missiles, against the ROC, JASDF and other US allies, this will not end well. New carriers, new missiles, and the aircraft to back them up. There are no “Flying Tigers” to make these old warbirds work against the J-20. The PLA is slooowly updating it’s ground forces, but give it time. Coupled with advances in Surface to Air missiles, TBM/ICBM and now a true blue water navy, fear the dragon. They can wait as Congress guts our military. Our allies have arms shipments BLOCKED by a useful idiot bureaucracy and media that is asleep at the switch. Naval aviation is rotting. The USAF is facing huge problems getting it’s new aircraft to cheap enough to replace it’s aging fleet.

Will the PLA sell this to oil-sucking unstable dictatorships? Check.

Are there hotspots where China would risk going to war? Oh yeah.

With carriers, fighters and strike aircraft and battleships, Imperial Japan thought it could take Asia. China wants to take Asia, but they want to do it with economics, diplomacy and force. Desert Storm showed them that their low tech military was a thing of the past. The last 20 years they have been on a scary upgrade binge. Just like Imperial Japan after WWI.

I only hope that we don’t have to repeat the past. Before tactics and new designs appeared, the Zero claimed a lot of lives. The J-20 and it’s kin will reshape air warefare. I hope that the brass is watching because the PLA is watching them.

UPDATE: Via defensetech, The DOD’s China report says that this bird will “eventually give the PLA Air Force a platform capable of long range, penetrating strikes into complex air defense environments.” Patriot soldiers and AEGIS uses, you have been warned.

Godspeed Lex

The US military has many contractors and civilian employees. A good number of them are retired. You see, after 20 years of active duty you can retire with a full pension and medical benefits.

I had an instructor who was a former 11B (infantry) then became a 14J (early warning). He had two plastic hips, a metal knee, was a cancer survivor yet still did the 9-5 grind teaching us knuckleheads about early warning and army communications.

Why do they do it? Getting a salary and a pension (double dipping is legal for federal retirees). But it’s more than that. Seeing us graduate, some joining the units he served in. Serving his country, making future soldiers. That money can’t buy.

Readiness, technical and tactual proficiency can’t be bought. It can’t come from reading a book. We train. It helps when our trainers know something about the military.

Godspeed Lex. And be careful flying that old heap.

Blog on hiatius:

Sorry folks, I’m currently playing army at Fort Bliss for the next 2 weeks. Blogging will resume in August 2011.

Good thing too, seems some folks in foggy bottom want to bring back the draft… *faceplam*

See you guys and gals in AUG!
–Chockblock

THAAD:

I have a buddy with one of the THAAD line units at Fort Bliss. These pics show parts of the system and the flight tests they used to have at WSMR. They have to use Hawaii now because the missiles fly so far and so fast they ran out of room at WSMR.

THAAD at Night

Inside the THAAD system

AN/TPY-2